Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach
Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH
Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Описание: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Canada is a key member of the world's most important international intelligence-sharing partnership, the Five Eyes, along with the US, the UK, New Zealand, and Australia. Until now, few scholars have looked beyond the US to study how effectively intelligence analysts support policy makers, who rely on timely, forward-thinking insights to shape high-level foreign, national security, and defense policy.
Intelligence Analysis and Policy Making provides the first in-depth look at the relationship between intelligence and policy in Canada. Thomas Juneau and Stephanie Carvin, both former analysts in the Canadian national security sector, conducted seventy in-depth interviews with serving and retired policy and intelligence practitioners, at a time when Canada's intelligence community underwent sweeping institutional changes.
Juneau and Carvin provide critical recommendations for improving intelligence performance in supporting policy--with implications for other countries that, like Canada, are not superpowers but small or mid-sized countries in need of intelligence that supports their unique interests.
Название: Image of the enemy ISBN: 1626162387 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781626162389 Издательство: Неизвестно Рейтинг: Цена: 24128.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Drawing on sources only available since the Cold War ended, The Image of the Enemy breaks new ground as it examines how seven countries gathered, analyzed, and used intelligence to deepen their understanding of their adversaries.
Описание: In the Allies' post-war analyses of the Nazis' defeat, the “weakness and incompetence” of the German intelligence services figured prominently. And how could it have been otherwise, when they worked at the whim of a regime in the grip of “ignorant maniacs”? But what if, Robert Hutchinson asks, the worldviews of the intelligence services and the “ignorant maniacs” aligned more closely than these analyses—and subsequent studies—assumed? What if the reports of the German foreign intelligence services, rather than being dismissed by ideologues who “knew better,” instead served to reinforce the National Socialist worldview? Returning to these reports, examining the information on enemy nations that was gathered, processed, and presented to leaders in the Nazi state, Hutchinson's study reveals the consequences of the politicization of German intelligence during the war—as well as the persistence of ingrained prejudices among the intelligence services' Cold War successorsCloser scrutiny of underutilized and unpublished reports shows how during the World War II the German intelligence services supported widely-held assumptions among the Nazi elite that Britain was politically and morally bankrupt, that the Soviet Union was tottering militarily and racially inferior, and that the United States' vast economic potential was undermined by political, cultural, and racial degeneration. Furthermore, Hutchinson argues, these distortions continued as German intelligence veterans parlayed their supposed expertise on the Soviet Union into positions of prominence in Western intelligence in the early years of the Cold War. With its unique insights into the impact of ideology on wartime and post-war intelligence, his book raises important questions not only about how intelligence reports can influence policy decisions, but also about the subjective nature of intelligence gathering itself.
Автор: Randolph H Pherson Sarah Miller Beebe & Название: Cases in Intelligence Analysis ISBN: 1483340163 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781483340166 Издательство: Sage Publications Рейтинг: Цена: 14731.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Now with 20 cases on major events with relevance for intelligence analysis, this text gives readers a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems.
Описание: Drawing on sources only available since the Cold War ended, The Image of the Enemy breaks new ground as it examines how seven countries gathered, analyzed, and used intelligence to deepen their understanding of their adversaries.
Автор: Andrew, Christopher Название: Interrogation in War and Conflict ISBN: 0415828031 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780415828031 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 24499.00 р. Наличие на складе: Нет в наличии.
Описание: This book analyses changes in intelligence governance and offers a comparative analysis of intelligence democratisation, focusing on Latin America and Europe.
Автор: Stenslie, Stig Название: Intelligence Analysis in the Digital Age ISBN: 036776699X ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367766993 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 6889.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Автор: Stenslie Stig, Haugom Lars, Vaage Brigt H. Название: Intelligence Analysis in the Digital Age ISBN: 0367766973 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780367766979 Издательство: Taylor&Francis Рейтинг: Цена: 23734.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book examines intelligence analysis in the digital age and demonstrates how intelligence has entered a new era.
