Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method 9781474466349

Варианты приобретения

Цена: 19272.00р.
Кол-во:
о цене
Наличие: Отсутствует. Возможна поставка под заказ.

При оформлении заказа до: 2026-05-14
Ориентировочная дата поставки: Июнь
При условии наличия книги у поставщика.

Добавить в корзину

в Мои желания

Автор: Whitesmith Martha
Название: Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method
ISBN: 9781474466349
Издательство: Bloomsbury Academic
Классификация:

Познание и когнитивная психология

Политика и политический строй

Международные отношения

Разведка и секретные службы

ISBN-10: 1474466346
Обложка/Формат: Hardback
Страницы: 304
Вес: 0.60 кг.
Дата издания: 30.09.2020
Серия: Intelligence, surveillance and secret warfare
Язык: English
Размер: 162 x 240 x 25
Читательская аудитория: Professional and scholarly
Ключевые слова: Cognition & cognitive psychology,Espionage & secret services
Подзаголовок: Improving analytical efforts for national intelligence
Рейтинг:
Поставляется из: Англии
Описание:

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach

Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH

Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method, Whitesmith Martha