Автор: Tetlock Philip E. Название: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? ISBN: 0691175977 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780691175973 Издательство: Wiley Рейтинг: Цена: 3485.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.
etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Автор: Jouvenel, Bertrand De Название: Sovereignty ISBN: 0865971730 ISBN-13(EAN): 9780865971738 Издательство: Gazelle Book Services Рейтинг: Цена: 2349.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: An examination of the nature and history of authority, the political good, the sovereign and liberty. The foreword places the author`s work in the context of his entire corpus.
Описание: This book explores the history of the international order in the eighteenth and nineteenth century through a new study of Emer de Vattel`s Droit des gens (1758).
Автор: Menozzi Filippo Название: World Literature, Non-Synchronism, and the Politics of Time ISBN: 303041700X ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030417000 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 6097.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Drawing on a Marxist concept of world literature, this book is a study of the manipulations of time in contemporary anglophone fiction from Africa and South Asia.
Описание: The so-called anthropocene is one of the most widely discussed concepts in philosophy and critical theory at the moment. This volume takes a broad historical view of the topic, bringing together high profile theorists, including Luce Irigaray and Adrian Parr, providing a platform for highly original work in this important and timely field.
Автор: Sinnott Jan D., Rabin Joan S. Название: The Psychology of Political Behavior in a Time of Change ISBN: 3030382729 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783030382728 Издательство: Springer Цена: 12196.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This volume seeks to add a unique perspective on the complex relationship between psychology and politics, focusing on three analytical points of view: 1) psychology, politics, and complex thought, 2) bio/psycho/social factors of masculinity and power, and 3) underlying factors in political behavior.
Описание: This volume provides a comparative explanation of the institutional evolution of parliaments since the intensification of political competition in the last third of the 19th century.
Автор: Shipan Charles R., Volden Craig Название: Why Bad Policies Spread (and Good Ones Don`t) ISBN: 1009100300 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781009100304 Издательство: Cambridge University Press Рейтинг: Цена: 15047.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Building on a deep theoretical foundation and drawing on numerous examples, we examine how policies spread across the American states. We argue that for good policies to spread while bad policies are pushed aside, states must learn from one another.
Автор: Shipan Charles R., Volden Craig Название: Why Bad Policies Spread (and Good Ones Don`t) ISBN: 1108958362 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781108958363 Издательство: Cambridge University Press Рейтинг: Цена: 4885.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Building on a deep theoretical foundation and drawing on numerous examples, we examine how policies spread across the American states. We argue that for good policies to spread while bad policies are pushed aside, states must learn from one another.
Описание: This book utilises the growing phenomenon of British soldier narratives from Iraq and Afghanistan to explore how British soldiers make sense of their role on these complex, multi-dimensional operations. It aims to intervene in the debates within critical feminist scholarship over whether soldiers can ever be agents of peace.
Автор: Patterson Eric D., Morrison Jeffry H. Название: The Reagan Manifesto: "a Time for Choosing " and Its Influence ISBN: 3319820095 ISBN-13(EAN): 9783319820095 Издательство: Springer Рейтинг: Цена: 6097.00 р. Наличие на складе: Есть у поставщика Поставка под заказ.
Описание: This book examines how Ronald Reagan`s electrifying 1964 televised speech, "A Time For Choosing," ignited the conservative movement within the GOP.
Автор: Heffernan James A. Название: Tunnels Through Time: Poems and Observations ISBN: 1098359437 ISBN-13(EAN): 9781098359430 Издательство: Gazelle Book Services Рейтинг: Цена: 3859.00 р. Наличие на складе: Поставка под заказ.
Описание: Tunnels Through Time: Poems and Observations is a book that contains just that: Brief philosophical observations in addition to original poems, all offered for the first time in print. Anyone who is interested in one, the other or both types of writing will find what is offered here to be interesting, engaging and fun. Topics range from Free Will and Fate, to Technology, A.I. and the Destiny of Man, to Chaos and Order, to Anthropology and Civilization, to Environment and Ecology to the U.S.A. -- and many more. Anyone will find something to enjoy.
ООО "Логосфера " Тел:+7(495) 980-12-10 www.logobook.ru
